By Peter Moszynski
While world leaders focus on making sure south Sudan's independence referendum goes ahead as planned in January, experts and peace activists say more attention should be paid to the crucial border areas of Blue Nile and South Kordofan where divisions risk leading to unrest.
These areas were key battlegrounds during Sudan's civil war that culminated in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), ending a two-decade conflict fought by the former rebel Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) against the Islamic northern government over ideology, religion, ethnicity and oil.
Both Blue Nile and South Kordofan are in northern Sudan. But during the war, many people fought alongside or supported the southern SPLM while other groups identified with the north and as a result communities are divided. Many now fear being left on the wrong side of the border should the south decide to secede.
Under the terms of the CPA, another contentious area -- the oil-rich region of Abyei -- will be allowed to vote on whether to join the south.
However, critics say the CPA offers Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan much less. It offers them a process of "popular consultation" meant to ascertain the views of the people on the CPA and resolve differences between the two states and the Khartoum government.
Abyei, Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan are often referred to as the three transitional areas.
In a report this month, campaign group Pax Christi warned that "failure to address the aspirations of the people of Abyei, the Nuba Mountains or Blue Nile could lead to unrest and eventually armed insurgency in those areas."
"One could envisage a scenario where the south secedes peacefully, but is drawn back into fullscale civil war by an outbreak of conflict in the transitional areas," it added.
Patrick Smith, editor of Africa Confidential, also warned that the wider north-south peace process could be derailed if the interests of these contested areas were overlooked.
"Many of the people from these areas have taken issue with the governments in both Khartoum and Juba, and fear an uncertain future -- caught between two hostile elephants," he told AlertNet.
NEGLECTED NUBA
Due to its location at the geographic centre of Africa's largest country, Southern Kordofan is particularly sensitive. The state borders Darfur and South Sudan, and is thus directly affected by boundary disputes and conflict in these regions.
Its population predominantly consists of Nuba people, a diverse collection of small tribes and clans settled in the fertile Nuba Mountains, as well as a significant number of nomadic Misseriya Arabs.
"The war in the Nuba Mountains was particularly vicious because many of our people are Muslims, and in 1992 the authorities issued a fatwa declaring rebel supporters to be apostates who had renounced Islam," said Kamal Kambal of rights group Nuba Mountains Solidarity Abroad.
"This was effectively a communal death sentence and permitted countless atrocities by pro-government militias formed from neighbouring tribes eager to grab our land."
He said the Nuba had supported the SPLM because they believed their claims to be fighting for 'a united secular New Sudan' but now felt betrayed by their bias towards independence.
"The CPA was supposed to bring a new era of democracy and inclusivity to Sudan, in order to make unity attractive, but it also offered an opt-out clause for the southerners to vote for independence if this didn't happen. If the southerners choose to secede, it will demonstrate that the peace process has failed, and where does that leave us?" Kambal told AlertNet.
MARGINALISATION FEARS
The Nuba say they were excluded from the north-south peace talks and that their continued lack of representation is adding insult to injury.
Fears of further marginalisation by the north were raised when President Omar Hassan al-Bashir appointed fellow war crimes-indictee Ahmad Haroun as Southern Kordofan's acting governor last year.
Haroun has been charged by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur.
Louise Roland-Gosselin of pressure group Waging Peace said although the 2005 peace deal paved the way for South Sudan's prized referendum on independence, "it has failed to provide a transition towards a more democratic and peaceful Sudan".
"Abyei and the two areas have continued to be marginalised and risk plunging the country back to war. We must not perpetuate the same mistakes from the past and focus on one area of Sudan while ignoring the others," she said.
Peter Moszynski is a journalist specialising in humanitarian issues. A former aid worker working on postwar reconstruction in South Sudan he was displaced by the outbreak of conflict in 1983, and has been monitoring events there closely ever since.
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