By Zeeshan Haider
ISLAMABAD, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani is fighting for his government's political life after a main partner quit the governing coalition and sparked yet another crisis in the U.S. ally.
Soon after the main opposition party leader warned on Tuesday the government should meet its demands or risk tough political action, senior ruling party official Salman Taseer was shot by one of his guards because he campaigned against Pakistan's controversial blasphemy law.
The assassination was a dramatic reminder of the problems Gilani's unstable government faces, from religious militancy, to politically sensitive demands from the International Monetary Fund, the country's economic lifeline, to power cuts.
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Here are some questions and answers on the upheaval.
WHY DID THE POLITICAL CRISIS ERUPT?
Gilani's government lost its majority in parliament after the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) defected because of what it said was a decision by the government to raise fuel prices to "unbearable" levels.
But the move may have been more of a political power play, rather than a sympathy protest, designed to safeguard the MQM's interests in the biggest city of Karachi, the party's powerbase.
Relations between the MQM and the ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) deteriorated after Sindh province Home Minister Zulfikar Mirza, a PPP official, last month blamed the MQM for a wave of ethnic violence in Karachi.
The MQM, for its part, says the government has failed to improve security in the sprawling metropolis, home to Pakistan's central bank, stock exchange, main port and offices of most foreign companies investing in Pakistan.
The Awami National Party (ANP), is the MQM's main rival for political posts and spoils.
Karachi's so-called targeted killings, often blamed on MQM and ANP supporters, have risen to 1,132 this year, the highest level since 1995, says the Citizens-Police Liaison Committee.
The MQM has also been at odds with the PPP since the provincial government dissolved municipal bodies across the country which effectively loosened the MQM grip on Karachi.
The political strife makes it highly difficult to impose law and order and fight militancy in Karachi, which officials say contributes 68 percent of the government's total revenue and 25 percent of gross domestic product.
WHERE IS THE CRISIS HEADED?
The MQM's defection deprived the coalition of its parliamentary majority. However, Gilani could cling to power because there are no signs the fractured opposition will close ranks and push for a vote of no-confidence in him in parliament.
The opposition may prefer slow political death for him. It can paralyse the government by blocking legislation.
On Monday, opposition parties created an uproar in the National Assembly over the government's fuel price increase.
In what is seen as an opening salvo, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, leader of the biggest opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), gave the government a week to accept his list of demands, which included a rollback of the fuel price rise, and the sacking of corrupt officials.
Popular Sharif threatened to expel PPP officials from the Punjab provincial government, which his party dominates.
Looking further ahead, he said he could try to form a united opposition front to push for an early election.
The assassination of Taseer, a liberal politician close to President Asif Ali Zardari, in broad daylight at a shopping centre in Islamabad served as a reminder of the stakes.
Aside from domestic challenges, an unstable Pakistan can't be an effective partner for the United States in the fight against militancy in Afghanistan, a top priority for the Obama administration. The United States also frets about the possibility, however remote, of Pakistan's nuclear weapons, or nuclear material, falling into the wrong hands during political turmoil.
WHERE DOES THE MILITARY FIT IN?
Even though the military has ruled Pakistan for more than half of its 63-year history, a coup is highly unlikely unless the turmoil spirals into chaos.
But it may try to manipulate politics.
"While Army Chief Ashfaq Kayani is reluctant to intervene in politics directly or carry out a 1999 type coup, he has come under increasing pressure from Pakistan's pro-army elites to facilitate a change of government within the remits of the constitution and establish a technocratic government better able to tackle these multiple crises and defend Pakistan's national interests," said Maria Kuusisto, an analyst at Eurasia Group. (Editing by Michael Georgy and Robert Birsel) (For more Reuters coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan, see: http://www.reuters.com/places/pakistan. (If you have a query or comment about this story, send an e-mail to news.feedback.asia@thomsonreuters.com) (Created by Robert Birsel)
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