Better management of cities can protect residents from storms, floods and earthquakes
BANGKOK (AlertNet) – By 2050, nearly 700 million people in large cities around the world will be exposed to tropical cyclones and storms, and almost 900 million to earthquakes, but good urban management can reduce their vulnerability to disasters, a World Bank expert said.
"Why is exposure rising? It's because people are coming to cities to seek work opportunities," said Apurva Sanghi, senior World Bank economist and team leader for the recently released report Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention.
"These are choices people make on their own - because life is so miserable in the rural areas that they will still risk the storm surges and floods to come to the city," Sanghi said at the regional launch of the report in Bangkok this week.
According to the study, the number of people exposed to tropical cyclones and storms will double from about 310 million in 2000 to 680 million by 2050. For earthquakes, the figure jumps from 370 million to 870 million. Most of these increases will be in Asia Pacific.
But good planning and preparedness will determine whether those exposed to hazards suffer harm from them, the report says.
FROM HAZARDS TO DISASTERS
While a mudslide may threaten to sweep away bridges and buildings, for example, poor design and construction could also play a major role, as well as their location - a result of poor urban management.
"Earthquakes, droughts, floods and storms are natural hazards, but the unnatural disasters are deaths and damages that result from human acts of omission and commission."
Urban growth is not the only concern. Climate change and associated extreme weather events are also increasing exposure. The report says climate-change induced tropical cyclones could cost between $28 billion and $68 billion in damages each year by the end of the century.
Most of the 3.3 million deaths from natural hazards since 1970 have been in poor countries, according to the report.
Thanks to technology, some advances in protecting people have been made, including the development of early warning systems for storms. But it is still impossible to predict earthquakes.
Sanghi said the best way to prevent serious damage from earthquakes is to build safer structures by promoting better building practices. Encouraging local engineering associations and promoting competition among builders can help, he said.
It is also important to improve rather than abandon traditional architectural and building techniques, which were key to reconstruction in remote, mountainous parts of Pakistan after the devastating October 2005 earthquake.
INSTITUTIONS AND INCENTIVES
Yet, while stricter building codes can work, if local institutions are weak, "making building codes mandatory can do more harm than good because you open the door to corruption and rent-seeking", Sanghi said.
Information, infrastructure and incentives, supported by institutions – meaning any group that makes collective decisions, from government entities to rural networks – will help cities cope with their rising exposure to hazards and stop them turning into disasters.
"Make information on hazards accessible, digestible and public," Sanghi said. "Think of infrastructure in cost-effective, multi-purpose ways, like schools doubled up as cyclone shelters in Bangladesh or tunnels doubled up as drains in Kuala Lumpur."
In many countries, flooding occurs as a result of poorly maintained drains. The system in Malaysia's capital, where roads also provide drainage, contributes to maintaining the roads and is cheaper than building each separately.
Incentives like removing "artificial restrictions such as rent controls or insecure property rights" will motivate individuals to make their land and houses more resilient to disasters, Sanghi added.
"But for all these three to happen, you need good, reliable institutions and those don't spring up overnight unfortunately."
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