BANGKOK (AlertNet) - In the Mekong river region, global warming is not the first worry on farmers' minds. Over the next 30 years, mainly social shifts such as a rising population and evolving diets will drive changes in agriculture, researchers said in a wide-ranging report.
But if farmers adapt to a growing demand for food and for increasingly popular meat and vegetables without depleting limited water reserves, they will also be better prepared for future effects of climate change, including an expected rise in the sea level which would flood some highly productive land, they said.
"In the next 20 or 30 years, climate change is not likely to be a major driver of change but beyond that, climatic shifts may call for major changes in agriculture," said the 24-page report by the International Water Management Institute, entitled "Rethinking Agriculture in the Greater Mekong Subregion".
The population of the region - which comprises Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and China's Yunnan Province - is forecast to rise to over 340 million from 275 million, pushing up demand for food by at least a quarter and putting pressure on farmland, according to the report launched this week.
Meanwhile, rapid urbanisation and hydropower and irrigation developments in the region could wreak havoc on farming and fisheries.
So agricultural practices must be rethought - and not only in order to meet the demand for food, but also to protect the 30 to 40 percent of the region's labour force who earn their living in the sector.
Moreover, the region is a significant agricultural exporter. For example, between 2008 and 2009 Thailand and Vietnam exported more than 14 million tonnes of rice, mostly to Africa.
Overall, using more nimble and sophisticated farming methods will ensure farmers are well-equipped to deal with any upheaval - social or climatic - that awaits them in the next century.
"People's capacity to adapt to change is closely linked to wealth, diversification of income sources, education and access to infrastructure and technology. Promoting broad-based agricultural development to lift deprived rural communities out of poverty is probably the most effective adaptation strategy available," the report said.
Some recommendations by the report's authors:
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